For a neighbor in whose country much of the Sudan People’s Liberation was built, Mr. Meles Zenawi has been unusually disengaged, at least publicly, from southern Sudan. For a country that set the foundation for many of the southern Sudan leaders, the Ethiopian President is yet to visit south Sudan. And his silence, on Sudanese issues, is worrying because it gives little away as to which way he would tilt in case there was a north-south Sudan standoff.
Now, the Ethiopian troops are coming to Abyei. The Ethiopian National Defence Force will provide the troops for Interim Security Force for Abyei (ISFA). Under the agreement, the ISFA will comprise one armoured brigade, commanded by an officer at the level of a Brigadier General or higher. In fact, the agreement effectively hands over military power to the Ethiopian troops. With the exception of ISFA, the Abyei Area shall be demilitarized. SPLA and SAF will stay out of Abyei.
The force is exclusively Ethiopian, not multi-national, which gives Mr. Zennawi enormous leverage over north-south Sudan politics after the Referendum.
There will be other benefits. Obviously, the Ethiopia can use this opportunity to lay the groundwork for future deals with both South and North Sudan over the River Nile and over oil refineries and pipelines. The deployment may even strengthen Ethiopia’s surveillance efforts in its constant standoff with Eritrea.
Still, the deployments signal Ethiopia’s rise as a preeminent regional military power. Ethiopia led the incursion into Somalia to prop up the regime there, before it handed over that Uganda. During the standoff over the River Nile last year, Mr. Zennawi dared the Egyptian forces to invade Ethiopia, promising none of the invaders would live to leave. Nobody thinks he was bluffing. Ethiopian troops are battle-hardened.
We don’t doubt the capability of the Ethiopian troops. But one can only hope that the Ethiopian force will not be distracted by its strategic national interests above the job it is supposed to do: Watch over Abyei.
